Tech Hiring Bubble Bursts

I wasn’t around in the 90s, but people who were say it was incredible. If you could code, you were set. Talent was rare. There were opportunities almost everywhere.

In the 2000s and early 2010s, that momentum kept going. Engineers climbed fast, management and then director roles in their 30s, big paychecks, life was good. Then came the pandemic, and companies couldn’t hire fast enough. It felt like the boom would never end. People came from all backgrounds. As long as you had the relevant skills, attitude, you had a shot. If you made wise choices, then you could go even beyond just getting it. 

Now? Different story. AI is taking over tasks that once needed human hands. Productivity expectations have shifted. The demand for engineers isn’t what it used to be. Experienced devs still have leverage, but the game is changing. I don’t think people are as eager to enter this industry as they once were. We’ll likely see more CS degree holders than ever before.

So, what’s next? The golden era of tech jobs might be fading. Coding alone won’t cut it. The real question isn’t just can I get a job? Can I learn fast enough to stay relevant? In this post, I’ll take a journey through time and bring it back to the present. That’s what I’ll explore here.

Before 2000s: The Tech Boom

The 1990s were a game-changer for tech. Between 1990 and 2000, tech jobs grew by 36%, and salaries doubled with a massive 102% jump.

It wasn’t just about numbers; careers took off. I remember going from the hotel to the company office where one exec from that era recalled, “Someone was paying me to play around with code, and then suddenly, I was a tech exec.” That kind of leap was common. Demand was high, and talent was scarce.

Tech jobs also became more concentrated in cities. By 2015, San Jose had the highest share of tech workers at 21%, followed by Boulder at 18% and San Francisco at 11%. Silicon Valley alone accounted for 9% of all U.S. tech employment.

Salaries were soaring. In 1997, the average software engineer made around $70,000, far above the national average. In today’s terms, it’s around 170k. 

Looking back, the 90s set the stage for today’s tech-driven world. Rapid job growth, skyrocketing wages, and fast career jumps made it a golden era where technology and opportunity collided, shaping the economy we live in now.

2000s and Early 2010s: Continued Growth

Moving into the 2000s and early 2010s, tech kept growing, though not as explosively as in the 90s. The number of people in computer occupations jumped from 450,000 in 1970 to 4.6 million in 2014, showing steady expansion. We obviously hit dotcom bubble at this era but the market recovered back even more hungry.

Even the 2008 financial crisis couldn’t derail the industry. I know everyone struggled here for a bit but then things got much better. The U.S. The Bureau of Labor Statistics projected an 18% job growth in computer and mathematical fields between 2012 and 2022, proving demand remained strong. Salaries followed suit. Median incomes for U.S. engineers and other IEEE tech professionals grew by 6% over a recent period, reinforcing the financial perks of tech careers.

This growth created a clear path for engineers to hit director-level roles in their 30s, often with hefty paychecks. With demand high and talent in short supply, career progression was fast for those with the right skills.

Overall, the 2000s and early 2010s saw steady industry expansion, rising wages, and plenty of opportunities. Despite economic challenges, tech’s adaptability made it look easy to have a good career growth and financial success.

Pandemic Era: Overexpansion and Correction

The pandemic-era lockdowns triggered a hiring frenzy as everyone knows at this point across the tech industry. Companies, flush with cash and expecting indefinite acceleration, staffed up aggressively. They often didn’t have a clear long-term plan. Let’s just hire and figure it out later. Between 2020 and 2022, employment in tech skyrocketed, but by 2023, the bubble burst. Over 400,000 tech jobs were cut globally as companies had to correct their overexpansion.

The Impact of AI and Automation

AI isn’t replacing engineers overnight. We know that. Yet, the shift is happening. Right now, it’s mostly enhancing productivity rather than outright eliminating jobs. But the writing is on the wall. AI is getting better, and companies are starting to realize they don’t need as many developers for the same output.

Many routine coding tasks that once took hours can now be done in minutes, allowing teams to move faster and focus on more complex work. This doesn’t mean companies are eliminating engineers entirely, but they are rethinking how many they need and what skills are most valuable. Just like automation changed manufacturing without making human workers obsolete, AI is shifting what software development looks like rather than wiping it out.

New and mid-level engineers are at risk. Not because they’re bad at their jobs, but because AI is handling more of the work. Senior engineers are still in demand because they understand architecture, scalability, and problem-solving. For now, those things AI isn’t great at yet. But the expectation is clear: over time, the number of hands-on coding roles will shrink, and more engineers will move into AI-assisted development, oversight, and strategy.

One thing to remember is that writing code faster doesn’t always mean better results. Coding assistants can generate entire functions or even full applications. But someone still has to review, debug, and maintain them. The more companies lean on AI, the more they’ll need experienced engineers to catch mistakes, ensure security, and make sense of it all. In the end, it’s quick and dirty generation to an extend. Hence, over-relying on AI can create a mess. That’s where you can pile up tech debt and you need to address it. Speeding up development doesn’t guarantee better software. It just shifts where the real work happens.

The Current Landscape

The tech job market hasn’t collapsed, but it isn’t what it used to be. The hiring frenzy of the early 2000s and pandemic era are gone. Companies are more cautious, and while there hasn’t been a massive squeeze on engineering jobs yet, it’s coming.

The reality is that AI is reshaping expectations. Junior and mid-level engineers will need to prove they bring more than just coding skills to the table. However, this shift might also resolve itself, as AI makes it easier to learn and adapt. People once struggled with manure problems in London before cars were invented. Perhaps, this is a similar transition. I guess you need to embrace the unknowns.

So, what does that mean? If you’re a developer today, the question isn’t “Will I have a job?” but “How do I stay ahead of this shift?” The answer is adaptation. You need to learn how to work with AI, master higher-level engineering concepts, and focus on areas AI can’t easily replace, like system design, product thinking, operational skills and leadership. Remember, most of the day-to-day job is about aligning with others. At a large company, this will always be a big deal.

If you’re studying software engineering related subjects, stay on your course. Nothing will shift tomorrow but the competition will be fierce than ever before. Getting an internship and succeeding in that would be even more important because then you would get an easy way to get into a company. 

Remember hiring slowdowns and layoffs aren’t new in tech. The industry has always gone through cycles where companies cut jobs, only to struggle to find talent when things pick up again. If fewer people enter the field now, there could be a shortage of experienced engineers in the future, making those with strong skills even more valuable.

Tech isn’t dying. But the easy, high-paying software job era is fading. The ones who evolve will still find work. The ones who don’t? AI won’t wait for them.